Red Wings mailbag: Expectations for Marco Kasper and Andrew Copp

Here’s hoping you got your summer rest in. Because once the puck drops on the Detroit Red Wings’ annual Traverse City prospect tournament Thursday night, it’s full speed ahead until at least mid-April. (Deep breaths, we’re not talking beyond that just yet.)

But with hockey finally back, it is time to open the mailbag to answer readers’ questions ahead of the season. Let’s dive in!

Note: Some questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.

With a pretty solid forward group of Wings prospects, how would you like to see the top two lines structured for the prospects tournament? — The Octopus Times

The Red Wings are indeed bringing a solid group of forwards to Traverse City this weekend, with Marco Kasper, Carter Mazur and Nate Danielson set to make their debuts at the event. Those are Detroit’s three top forward prospects, in my estimation, and returning Elmer Söderblom, Amadeus Lombardi and Cross Hanas are certainly names of note, as well, and all three have shown well at the tournament.

Is it too simplistic to say those are the six — in some combination — I’d like to see on the top two lines? Perhaps it is, since invitees make up much of the rest of the roster and there’s presumably some interest in a balanced lineup.

But it is the truth. I think I’d go:

Söderblom-Kasper-Mazur
Hanas-Danielson-Lombardi

Those look like well-balanced lines that can score, play in the corners and take on a matchup role if needed. The top trio would also feature the three forward prospects with the best chance to take a run at a roster spot — though I’d call those odds unlikely, given the veteran depth Detroit now has — and give all three complementary players with whom they can begin stating their case.

What are Alexandre Doucet’s expectations heading into this season? — Nick

Doucet — Detroit’s undrafted free-agent signing who led the QMJHL in goals last season — is another member of the prospect tournament roster and arguably the best candidate to disrupt that top six, especially if Detroit has any interest in playing Lombardi at center.

Certainly, when you have a stat line like his, you’re a name to watch. And I’ll be watching him closely in Traverse City. But typically, my rule of thumb for undrafted free agents is to not have any real expectations. Sometimes you find a Danny DeKeyser, but more likely, you’re getting an AHL player who may see a few NHL games but won’t really move the needle.

So, to answer the question, I’d expect Doucet plays this season in the AHL, and I will wait to see what he looks like there before expecting much else.

What do you think of Kasper this season? Will he be a part of the NHL roster? We think so. Greetings from a Rögle fan. — Robo X.

The fact he got a game in the spring is a point in his favor. My feeling is Kasper will play NHL games this season. Is that number nine? Is it 20? Is it 40? All of that remains to be seen.

It is possible, of course, that Kasper pulls a Lucas Raymond and grabs a spot for opening night. But the Red Wings are deeper than they were in Raymond’s rookie year, and the fact Kasper plays center might make it even more complicated. Detroit could always opt to break him in on the wing — or to flex Andrew Copp, for example, outside — but getting them to consider that option for one of their top prospects is going to require him to really kick the door down this fall.

Perhaps he will do that. I spent some time around Rögle last season and was quite impressed by Kasper’s maturity and work ethic. That was amplified even further when I saw he was able to be a full participant at development camp despite sustaining a meaningful injury at the end of the season. So I have no doubt he put the maximum amount of work in this summer, and his talent speaks for itself.

But if you put me on the spot, I’d say he starts in Grand Rapids and plays himself up to Detroit sometime around late January. From there, I think he’ll make it hard to send him back down.

What are your expectations for Andrew Copp in Year 2, assuming he is fully healthy? Feels like he was starting to move past his slow start from injury and be more of the player he has been in the past toward the end of last season. — Tom M.

I agree, Tom. Recovering from surgery at the start of the season understandably seemed to hamper him early. But on the balance of the season, I still came away feeling like he was one of the Red Wings’ most important players. He also quietly set a career high in assists with 33 — and while that may have been counteracted a bit by his lowest goals total since 2017-18 (nine), his 7.5 percent shooting percentage tells us that number should trend back toward the teens this season.

I also think the addition of J.T. Compher will free Copp up a bit from taking on so many tough matchups and especially help in the faceoff circle, where Detroit finally has a right-shot center to lean on. That should counteract Copp’s dip on the dot last season and propel him back into the 53 percent range, where he lived from 2018 to 2022.

Because of the many elements he brings to a game, Copp’s impact will never be measured just by points, but since I’m sure that’s at least part of your question here, I’ll say he finishes somewhere between 45 and 50.

Former Oiler Klim Kostin should help provide the Red Wings with real depth. (Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)

Do you think Klim Kostin will be in the lineup on a regular basis? He brings a dynamic we haven’t had in a long time. He reminds me of Darren McCarty. — Bryan

There aren’t many McCartys in today’s game, but I certainly get the point you’re going for. Kostin should certainly be part of the answer to Detroit’s very obvious need to get bigger and tougher to play against. And though I had him as the odd man out in a way-too-early lineup projection after the Alex DeBrincat trade, I do think he’ll be a regular for the Red Wings.

The Red Wings have some real depth now, and that means good players are going to have to sit some games when everyone is healthy. But they wouldn’t have traded for Kostin if they weren’t planning to give him a real role. Especially when, as you allude, he brings a dynamic they really lacked. So should Christian Fischer. Again, it could get crowded when everyone is healthy.

But considering how rare full health is in the modern NHL, I have to believe Kostin is getting 70-plus games this season.

Is Albert Johansson ahead of Simon Edvinsson in the eyes of management, do you think? They’re always at pains to mention him whenever SE’s name arises. Or is it just keeping him in the convo to help his mindset? — Adam E.

This is an interesting question from Adam because I’ve noticed the same tendency of management to bring up Johansson somewhat unprompted. And I certainly don’t think it’s a coincidence. I think he impressed the organization last season.

In terms of “ahead,” though, it probably depends on what you mean. Johansson is entering his fifth season of professional hockey. Frankly, it would be surprising if he weren’t ahead in some areas, risk management being chief among those. It’s possible they could see him as more “ready,” although with Edvinsson recovering from surgery, I’m not sure that even has a practical implication entering this year’s camp.

But as far as overall caliber of prospect, I don’t think there’s any question Edvinsson ranks higher. He’s just a different level of athlete at 6 foot 6, and with that combination of size, skating, skill and defensive instincts, the ceiling is so high.

If Johansson hadn’t gotten hurt late last season, it would not have shocked me to see him called up before Edvinsson was. And for that reason, it won’t surprise me if he gets an earlier call-up this year, if injuries require one. Especially with Edvinsson losing some time this summer to his recovery.

But long term, I think Edvinsson is just in a different class.

Who do you think plays with Dylan Larkin and Alex DeBrincat on the top line? I would like to see Michael Rasmussen play with them if it’s not Lucas Raymond. — Brandon J.

Honestly, I think we’ll see a bunch of different looks throughout the year. And probably even throughout the preseason. I tend to be of the mindset that teams will split up players like Raymond and DeBrincat to deploy one on each of their top two lines, and that’s what I’ve projected thus far. I just think teams look for a little more stylistic balance when assembling lines.

But I’d be lying if I said I didn’t want to at least see what it looks like with Detroit’s three most talented offensive players on one line. How can you not be curious? You’ve got three players who could all plausibly score 30 goals this season, and while neither DeBrincat nor Raymond is a bruiser, both are still competitors.

If Detroit splits them up, though, I think your head is in the right spot with Rasmussen. He fits the bill as a big-bodied player who can win battles down low on the forecheck, hammer home rebounds, contribute defensively and also be a better setup man than he sometimes gets credit for. I’ve really liked his evolution the last two seasons. My pick would be David Perron, who checks those boxes, as well, and had a great season last year, albeit without quite the same length Rasmussen has.

And if not them, I could see Robby Fabbri as a candidate — although I’d argue at that point you might as well just go with Raymond — and maybe even Kostin depending on how he looks in the preseason. The real dark horse would be if Detroit decides to break in Kasper on the wing, but again I think that’s unlikely.

But I have to say: Seeing the different line combinations evolve is always one of my favorite parts of camp — and the surest sign that hockey is back.

Will it be easier to pass James Reimer through waivers as opposed to Alex Lyon? — Billy S.

Reimer is older (35) and has a higher salary ($1.5 million), so I get where Billy is coming from. But I think the two reasons Reimer is actually more likely to get claimed are that he is much more proven and a much lower commitment on a one-year deal, as opposed to Lyon on a two-year deal. That’s a meaningful difference.

And I actually think it’s a good thing for the Red Wings. Unless they want to carry three goalies again — and the apportioning of reps there makes that an undesirable option — they’re going to need one of these two goalies to clear waivers and be a credible AHL option while the other spells Ville Husso. And if the chosen backup (my guess out of the gate is Reimer, pending their preseason play) stumbles, they can then feel better about that player clearing waivers while calling up the other.

My sense from reading subscribers’ comments and tweets has been that fans would prefer to start out with Lyon as the primary backup, and that’s understandable: We just saw his strong play late last season help the Florida Panthers squeak into the playoffs before they made a long run to the Stanley Cup Final. He’s the one on the two-year deal, too, making it natural to want to see him succeed.

But from the other perspective, Lyon played just 15 NHL games last regular season, whereas Reimer played 43. Considering Detroit likely needs someone to take about 30 games from Husso, Reimer looks like the surer bet — although it’s worth noting his results were not as good in that workload as Lyon’s in the lighter one.

It’ll be an interesting decision and a legit camp battle. But I don’t think Reimer will be easier to sneak through waivers unless he really struggles this fall.

If David Perron plays as well as last year, does he earn an extension midseason? Or will they look to move him at the deadline even if they are in a playoff race (like with Tyler Bertuzzi last year)? — Joe H.

First of all, I should say that by the time the Red Wings traded Bertuzzi, their involvement in the playoff race was nominal at best. I know that sounds weird given where they were just a week before the deadline, but those two games in Ottawa truly did a number on their playoff odds, dropping them from a 30 percent chance going into those games to just 9 percent when they left Ottawa. At that point, I have a hard time saying they were actually in the hunt.

I’ll also note that there’s a difference between Bertuzzi and Perron: Bertuzzi was 28, Perron is 35. So even as a rental, I’m not sure he’s going to fetch quite the same level of trade offers as Bertuzzi, who was at least a candidate to be extended in Boston before signing in Toronto. So they’re different scenarios.

I don’t think I see a midseason extension simply because of Perron’s age, but I could certainly be wrong. He’s an important leader for this team, and if he maintains his level of play, it wouldn’t be bad to tack on another year. Even absent an extension, if Detroit is weighing medium-to-low playoff odds against a second-round pick, it could very well still decide there’s more value in the young players being part of a (long-shot) chase.

But so far, we have yet to see Steve Yzerman operate that way at the trade deadline with a player who both isn’t under contract and can draw a meaningful return. And I can’t pick against that M.O. continuing until I see otherwise.

(Top photo of Andrew Copp: Brian Bradshaw Sevald / USA Today)

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