Is Darrell Henderson the top waiver add? Should I trade Gus Edwards? 7 important fantasy football qu

The Athletic has live fantasy football advice for your lineups ahead of Week 8. 

This series answers numerous fantasy-centric issues following Week 7’s games (usually looking ahead and ‘what does this mean?’). Like is Austin Ekeler going to be like this all year? Should I trade Gus Edwards? And more. It uses advanced metrics, analytics, game tape reviews, statistical trends, and myriad other elements. It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article and reviewed in greater detail at TheFootballScientist.com.

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The EPA metrics detailed below are per TruMedia. Other advanced metrics outside of my unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are in full PPR environments. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the end of the Sunday night games.

Note: The app’s dark display theme can interfere with how the tables in this article look. If you’re on the app, please switch to light mode by tapping on the Aa button at the top to properly view it.

Running backs

1. Will Austin Ekeler get back to his RB1 ways any time soon?

This has to be the No. 1 fantasy football question on the minds of anyone who had Ekeler in a starting lineup over the past two weeks. Ekeler began the season looking like his 2022 version by scoring 26.4 PPR points against Miami in Week 1, but that wasn’t the case in Weeks 6 and 7, as he scored a total of 17.8 PPR points in that pair of games. That pace ranks 29th among running backs in Weeks 6-7 and may have some fantasy managers considering benching Ekeler in Week 8.

Before making that move, let’s look at this from another angle. Ekeler ranks 29th out of 31 running backs in PPR points per play over the past two weeks (minimum 20 rushes + targets to qualify). That might sound like Ekeler is bench material but take a look at the bottom 10 running backs on this list, along with their PPR points per play pace:

PPR points per play (last 2 games)

The reality is that just about everyone on this list will get strong start consideration and some of the players (Walker and Barkley, most notably) are hands down must-start candidates.

Let’s also note that even though the Chargers don’t have a green-rated rush defense matchup until Week 11 and have a red-rated rush defense matchup in Week 10 against Detroit, Los Angeles has five green-rated matchups from Weeks 11-17.

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This means Ekeler will be someone you want in lineups down the stretch and should want in lineups now since he is still getting a tremendous volume of plays (ranked 10th among running backs in Weeks 6-7).

It also means if someone in your league decides to call it a day on Ekeler and makes him available in a trade, it could be the type of move that helps you win a league at season’s end, as Ekeler could post tremendous point totals down the stretch given the favorable matchups.

2, What was the workload split in the Rams’ first week without Kyren Williams?

Fantasy managers were in scramble mode last week after it became clear the Rams backfield workload was going to be up for grabs after Williams and backup Ronnie Rivers were both lost to injury.

The most popular candidate in the fantasy community was Zach Evans, as he saw his roster rate skyrocket to 57.5 percent, but that isn’t how things played out, as evidenced by the Rams running back snap counts from Week 7.

Rams RBs (Week 7)

Darrell Henderson was only added in six percent of leagues last week and yet he led this group in all categories sans pass block snaps. He was in a platoon with Royce Freeman, who was rostered in an additional 10.9 percent of leagues this past week.

Evans didn’t even see the field, so he is obviously a drop candidate. Henderson and Freeman are both still available in an overwhelming majority of leagues and should be considered at or near the top of the Week 8 waiver wire list.

3. What’s the workload split between Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Samaje Perine?

As frustrating as the Rams backfield was this week, at least that running back situation can now be considered a known commodity. That hasn’t been the case for the Broncos backfield, as that group may be the most frustrating in all of fantasy football. Here’s how the Week 7 snap count panned out for the four backs who received snaps versus the Chiefs.

Broncos RBs (Week 7)

This makes it clear that Williams can be considered either a lead back with Perine and McLaughlin as a combination of alternate backs, or the lead in what is essentially a three-way platoon setup.

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That should be enough to warrant putting Williams into starting lineups as a flex, but it should also be enough to slate McLaughlin, who was trending toward start status after scoring 37.3 PPR points in Weeks 4-5, as headed for fantasy benches unless or until he proves he will be receiving more work.

4. Is it time to bench Brian Robinson?

Robinson has been a very frustrating fantasy prospect over the past five weeks, as he has alternated between scoring a single digit PPR point total (as he did in Weeks 3, 5, and 7) and posting a double-digit PPR point total (as he did in Weeks 4 and 6).

This is another instance where the running back points per play metric can come in handy. Here are the Top 10 backs in that metric over the past four weeks (minimum 40 plays to qualify).

When healthy, there isn’t a back on this list (outside of Robinson) who would be considered for bench candidacy, so it’s all just a matter of workload. Here’s how that played out for Washington in Week 7, via the Commanders running back snap counts.

Commanders RBs (Week 7)

Rodriguez was granted some opportunities during the second half of the loss to the Giants but given that he ran for only 31 yards on seven carries, it doesn’t look like he will be taking over as the lead back in this offense.

Add it up and there are more reasons to start Robinson than there are reasons to sit him, so keep him in mind for a flex role given the upside potential built into the points per play upside.

5. Trade high on Gus Edwards?

It is certainly tempting to consider Edwards as a strong start candidate since he just racked up 21.4 PPR points against a Lions rush defense that ranked first in fantasy points allowed on rush plays to opposing running backs in Weeks 3-6.

That probably isn’t wise because this was only the second time that Edwards tallied a double-digit PPR point total in 2023. In the other five games this season, Edwards never reached the 7.0-PPR point bar a single time.

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It’s also worth noting that Edwards gained 80 yards on his only reception against the Lions, an anomaly that can be blamed on a huge pass coverage error by Detroit. To put that receiving yardage into perspective, note that Edwards had gained only 207 receiving yards in his entire NFL career up to that point.

Now combine all of this with the fact that Baltimore has five red-rated rush defense matchups from Weeks 9-17. That certainly makes Edwards a very strong candidate to trade away while his value is high, with one caveat being that Arizona, the Ravens Week 8 opponent, has a subpar rush defense. That means Edwards can be justified for a potential start this week, but after that any and all reasonable offers for him should be considered given the slew of factors that point towards more subpar numbers from Gus the Bus.

Quarterbacks

6. Is there any upside hope for Geno Smith?

Smith finished fifth in QB fantasy points in 2022 and seemed to be on track to equal or surpass that pace in 2023 since Seattle’s passing game was even more dangerous after adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the offseason.

Unfortunately for Smith’s fantasy managers, it hasn’t panned out that way, as Smith ranks 22nd among quarterbacks in points per game for the season and is 26th in QB PPG since Week 3.

Even with that drop-off, fantasy managers still had enough faith in Smith to increase his roster rate by more than 10 percent last week due to six teams being on a bye, but should fantasy managers consider making that same type of move when bye weeks begin again starting in Week 9?

To figure this out, let’s start by noting that Smith moves to 15th in QB PPG for the season if the analysis is limited to pass plays, so the true test of if he can still warrant a spot in fantasy lineups may come down to how many favorable pass game matchups are still on the Seahawks 2023 schedule.

To gauge this, let’s look at where each upcoming opponent ranks in terms of fantasy pass points allowed per game since Week 3 (with lower rankings equaling a more difficult matchup).

Pass points allowed/game (since Week 3)

Things can certainly change regarding coverage strength between now and later this year, but as it stands at the moment there are four matchups against teams that rank 20th or lower in this category, and two of those occur in the next three weeks.

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This is why fantasy managers ought not throw in the towel on Smith, as there are enough favorable matchups in his future to justify spot start status.

Wide receivers/tight ends

7. Is it time to consider Rashee Rice an every week flex starter in PPR leagues?

It might seem tough to justify putting Rice into a fantasy lineup since he hasn’t caught more than five passes in a single game, has tallied 60 or fewer passing yards in all but one game (and posted 72 in the outlier) and has six or fewer targets in all but one game (and had seven in the outlier).

That focus on what he hasn’t done doesn’t highlight what Rice has done, which is put a double-digit PPR point total on the board at a very consistent pace (note: my colleague John Laghezza has been begging you to pick up Rice since Week 3 in his “future waiver wire” column). Rice has done this on five occasions this year, which makes him one of only 24 wide receivers to make that claim.

It should also be noted that Rice is getting more usage in the Chiefs offense as the season progresses and is available in just over 50 percent of leagues. Savvy fantasy managers will be putting him in as a high percentage flex option if they have him on a roster, and fantasy managers in leagues where Rice isn’t rostered should put a high priority on rostering him this week.

(Top photo: Harry How/Getty Images)

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