It seems the last thing on the minds of Packers fans after a second consecutive loss is the playoffs. They have their pitchforks out for defensive coordinator Joe Barry — head coach Matt LaFleur gave him a vote of confidence on Monday — even with the postseason still a strong possibility if Green Bay wins out against the Panthers on the road, Vikings on the road and Bears at home.
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The Packers needed to win their final five games last season to sneak into the dance after starting 4-8. They almost did, falling just one game short after a 20-16 Week 18 loss to the Lions at Lambeau Field sent them packing at 8-9. They likely need to do the same — win out — to sneak in the back door again.
“Every game’s a playoff. We can’t afford to lose any more,” running back Aaron Jones said Monday. “It’s no room for error at this point. You’ve got to go win.”
Let’s fire up the New York Times playoff odds machine to examine the most likely path to the playoffs for the Packers if they are to pull this off.
Matt LaFleur looks to get back to the playoffs after missing them last season, the first year he failed to make the postseason as Packers head coach. (Mark Hoffman / USA Today)As it stands, Green Bay (6-8) has a 23-percent chance to make the postseason, based on 240,000 simulations. The Vikings (7-7, 53 percent), Rams (7-7, 49), Seahawks (7-7, 45), Saints (7-7, 41) and Falcons (6-8, 7) are the teams currently above the Packers in the wild-card standings, in that order. Atlanta, despite having lower playoff odds, owns the head-to-head advantage over Green Bay from Week 2. The Buccaneers, who beat the Packers by 14 on Sunday, are 7-7 but have a 78-percent chance to make it as current NFC South leaders.
If the Packers win out, they have a 95-percent chance to make the playoffs at 9-8. If they go 2-1 with a loss to the Bears, 21 percent. If they go 2-1 with a loss to the Vikings, 9 percent. If they go 2-1 with a loss to the Panthers, 32 percent. That’s how mediocre the wild-card race is in the NFC, that a team with a losing record could have about a one-in-three chance to make the playoffs.
For time’s sake, let’s only consider the Packers winning out and look at what else they’d need around the league in what seems like the most likely scenarios for them to go dancing.
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Scenario 1
• Packers win out, finish 9-8
• Vikings lose to Lions in Week 16 and Packers in Week 17 before beating Lions in Week 18 (or beat Lions in Week 16 and lose in Week 18), finish 8-9
• Rams beat Saints in Week 16 and Giants in Week 17 before losing to 49ers in Week 18, finish 9-8
• Ravens beat 49ers in Week 16 to increase chances San Francisco plays its starters in Week 18 against Rams to try and secure the NFC’s top seed
• Saints lose to Rams in Week 16 and Buccaneers in Week 17 before beating Falcons in Week 18, finish 8-9, while ensuring Falcons don’t finish with a winning record
• Buccaneers lose to Jaguars in Week 16 before beating Saints in Week 17 and Panthers in Week 18 to finish 9-8 and secure No. 4 seed as NFC South winner
• Even if Seattle wins out against the Titans, Steelers and Cardinals in this scenario to finish 10-7, the Packers would make the playoffs as the No. 7 seed via head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rams
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Scenario 2
• Packers win out, finish 9-8
• Vikings lose to Lions in either Week 16 or 18 and to Packers in Week 17, finish 8-9
• Rams lose to Saints in Week 16, beat Giants in Week 17 and 49ers (resting starters) in Week 18, finish 9-8
• Saints beat Rams in Week 16, lose to Buccaneers in Week 17 and beat Falcons in Week 18, finish 9-8, while ensuring Falcons finish below .500
• Buccaneers lose to Jaguars in Week 16 before beating Saints in Week 17 and Panthers in Week 18 to finish 9-8 and secure No. 4 seed as NFC South winner via head-to-head tiebreaker over Saints
• Even if Seattle wins out against the Titans, Steelers and Cardinals in this scenario to finish 10-7, the Packers would make the playoffs as the No. 7 seed by winning the three-way tiebreaker with the Rams and Saints
Punch all those results into the NYT playoff machine and the Packers’ percentage goes from 23 to 100. Simple, right? Not so much, especially if the Packers’ recent performances are any indication of what’s to come.
“All I know is this: We’ve got three weeks left,” LaFleur said. “We’ve got three games and every game is a playoff mentality. Who knows what will happen? But we can’t get it all back at once. You’ve got to earn it every day. You’ve got to get back to practice and just give it our best shot from here on out.”
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Alexander’s dilemma
Packers two-time All-Pro Jaire Alexander, who’s still only 26 years old, is the highest-paid cornerback in NFL history at $21 million per year. That’s why his situation is newsworthy because he has missed the last six games with a shoulder injury but has never gone on injured reserve because of it. He’s also been practicing in a limited capacity or estimated as a limited participant since Nov. 16, the Thursday before the Packers played the Chargers in Week 11.
After traveling with the team to Pittsburgh and Detroit in the first two road games after his Week 9 injury against the Rams, Alexander didn’t travel with the Packers for their Week 14 game against the Giants. LaFleur attributed his absence on the team plane to injury recovery.
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At the onset of any injury, a team places a player on IR if the injury is expected to keep the player out at least four games, the minimum amount of time a player must miss while on IR. We’ve seen numerous players this season miss three games with injuries and not go on IR before returning for that fourth game — Jones from Week 12-14, wide receiver Christian Watson from Week 1-3 and inside linebacker De’Vondre Campbell from Week 4-7 (the Packers didn’t play in Week 6).
Not going out my way anymore and I’m not playing through injuries anymore cause when shit goes wrong they always use it against you. I’m treating everyone accordingly and giving them the same energy they giving me. Focus on yourself and your mental 59 you owe it to yourself 🤝🏿
— De'Vondre Campbell (@Came_Along_Way) December 19, 2023
If the team forecasts a player will miss three games and the player has a setback that causes them to miss four instead, that’s one thing. Alexander has not just missed four games, nor has he missed just five. He’s missed six games in a row without an IR stint. Asked about the situation Monday, LaFleur attributed Alexander’s extended absence to “more of a miscalculation” on the part of the team with regard to how long he’s been out.
Alexander spoke to reporters the Friday before playing the Giants and maintained his absence was strictly because of his shoulder injury and that he “1,000 percent” wants to play. The Packers’ next game is in Charlotte, N.C., Alexander’s hometown. Will his long-awaited return come then with the Packers clinging to playoff hopes?
(Top photo: Todd Rosenberg / Getty Images)
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